Whether Hosni Mubarak goes any time soon or hangs on until the end of his mandate in September, the $64,000 question remains: Who picks up the baton?
I believe the Egyptian Armed Forces will not only engineer the succession, but that an active or former officer will succeed Mubarak as president.
Here is my take on the standing of four military and two civilian front-runners:
For:
Vice President and Military Intelligence chief
Against:
Backers:
Egyptian military, U.S., Israel
Rating:
*****
For:
Commander in chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces
Against:
Incumbent Defense Minister
Backers:
Egyptian military, U.S., Israel, most Arab states
Rating:
*****
For:
Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces since 2005
Against:
Little
Backers:
Egyptian public and military, U.S., Israel, most Arab states
Rating:
*****
For:
Civilian with distinguished Egyptian Air Force career
Against:
Incumbent Prime Minister
Backers:
Egyptian military, U.S., Israel, most Arab states
Rating:
*****
For:
Scholar, diplomat, Nobel laureate and former IAEA chief
Against:
Long residence abroad
Backers:
Lukewarm public support, few Arab states
Rating:
*****
For:
Secretary General of the Arab League since 2001 and former Foreign Minister
Against:
Anathema to U.S. and Israel and Moslem Brotherhood
Backers:
Respectable proportion of Egyptian public and Arab states
Rating:
*****
